Math Trivia : Same birthday in the class of 50 people
Bet is made on "Are there the two persons with same birthday in the class of 50 people or not?"
Should I bet on "Yes" ?
Yes, you should.
Then you can find the probability that there are two persons with same birthday.
Probability of that birthday of #1 person and #2 person of the attendance numbers is different, is 364/365.
The probability of that #3 person is not the same birthday with both #1 and #2 is 363/365.
Calculating up to # 50 like this, the probability that there is no person with same birthday among 50 people is to be 364/365 × 363/365 × · · · · · × 316/365 = 0.0296 (Please believe this is correct as the calculation is very tough.).
Therefore, the probability that there are two persons with the same birthday is 1 - 0.0296 = 0.9704 = about 97% and you should bet on "Yes".